Volume 23, Issue 68 (4-2023)
jgs 2023, 23(68): 81-98 |
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Hosinpoor Z, Shamsipour A, Karimi M, khoshakhlagh F. Statistical analysis of heat waves in the southern slopes of Alborz. jgs 2023; 23 (68) : 5
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3387-en.html
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3387-en.html
1- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran
2- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran , Mostafakarimi.a@ut.ac.ir
2- Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran , Mostafakarimi.a@ut.ac.ir
Abstract: (3203 Views)
Heat waves are important phenomena in Iran, And its upsurge in recent years seems to have a high upside trend.This climate has a negative impact on agriculture, forest fire and forestry, water resources, energy use and human health.The purpose of the research is to explain the frequency, time distribution, continuity of thermal waves, and the identification of its occurrence in the southern foothills of central Alborz.Therefore, using the statistical methods and maximum daily temperature data of Tehran (Mehrabad), Qazvin and Semnan stations for the statistical period of 30 years (1966-2016), the mentioned characteristics were extracted.In the first step, the nonparametric method of Kendal was used to understand the variability and awareness of the monthly trend of maximum temperatures in the study period.In order to determine the severity, duration and frequency of heat wave events, the percentiles (95.98) and normalized temperature deviation (NTD) were used.The results of the study showed that the frequency of short-wave heat waves was higher.Most frequencies are related to 2-day waves, respectively, and Tehran (Mehrabad), Semnan and Qazvin stations are more frequent.The highest frequency of annual events was detected at stations in Tehran (11 waves in 2010), in Semnan (9 waves in 2015) and Qazvin (7 waves in 2015), respectively.The highest frequency of monthly heat wave events was recorded in June and September.The highest continuation (15 days) was obtained in March 2008 with the percentile method at Mehrabad station.In the normalized deviation method, the temperature was calculated as a warm wave (12 days) in 2008.The highest annual frequency of heat loss occurred in all three stations in 2015.The evolution of the process indicated an increase in the incidence of thermal waves in the cold period of the year But in other chapters, no meaningful changes were made.As it says, the decline in cold winter temperatures is on the southern slopes of Alborz.The results of the two methods showed that in the normalized deviation of the temperature, the number of thermal waves more than the percentile method was recorded, but in the percentile method, the thermal wave was more prominent in the cold period of the year.
Article number: 5
Keywords: Heat wave, Trend analysis, Percentile index, Normalized temperature deviation, Central Alborz
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