Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the increase of earthquake risk in worn-out urban areas with a combined approach of fuzzy Delphi technique and BMW model

Authors
Ehsan Arkani 1
Hossein Hatami Nejad 2
Soheil Qare 3
1 PhD Student in Management, Crisis Management, Sheikh Baha'i Non-Profit Higher Education Institute, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Payame Noor University, Mashhad, Iran
10.29252/jgs.20.59.291
Abstract
Today, the vulnerability of cities, especially the old and worn-out tissues to earthquakes, has become a global issue for experts in various fields. This situation has become more acute in countries with dangerous natural structures, including Iran, in recent decades. Exhausted urban tissues, as the main boiling point of a city, reflect the identity of that city, and are vulnerable to natural disasters, especially unstable earthquakes. This study was conducted with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the increase of earthquake risk in worn-out urban areas. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of analytical method based on multi-criteria approach. Library and field methods were used to gather information. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, and the sample size was estimated at 30 people. In order to achieve the goals considered in this study, fuzzy Delphi technique and BMW model were used. The results of fuzzy Delphi technique confirmed the identified factors and subscales. The results of the BMW model indicated that among the identified factors, natural factors with a final score of 0.321 were in the first place, housing quality factor with a final score of 0.287 in the second place, distance from special uses with a final score of 255. 0.0 is in the third place and the demographic and economic factor with the final score of 0.137 is in the fourth place.
Keywords
Earthquake risk
worn-out urban fabric
fuzzy Delphi technique
BMW model
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