Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Forecasting Average Daily Temperature in the Khorasan Razavi Province

Authors
sayyed mohamad Hosseini
Abdolhossein Adelzadeh
10.29252/jgs.19.52.99
Abstract
In this research, applied synoptic model for determining the average daily temperature and its relationship with the Geopotential Height in middle level (500 HPa). Therefore, two database were used: database of atmospheric circulations, includes the data of geopotential height at 500 HPa and its data were extracted from the NCEP/DOE(US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) in hours 00:00; 03:00; 06:00; 09:00; 12:00; 15:00; 18:00; and 21:00 in Zulu and other, database of environmental (surface) events. Contain of average daily temperature in the Mashhad, Torbat-Heydarieh and Sabzevar stations in Khorasan Razavi Province. The maximum and minimum of these stations in the time interval from 01/01/1987 to 01/01/2014 equal as 9862 days from the meteorological organization of Iran. Then, was calculated the correlation of the average daily temperature of selected stations with high atmospheric data (500 HPa level) with the northern hemisphere in Surfer Software. The result shown, four regions in the northern hemisphere which had high correlations with selected stations. The correlation results suggest that the United States has 25 pixels, Northern China 25 pixels, Africa 45 pixels and Japan with 65 pixels. Then, weighted average of pixels in heights by multiple regression equation station. The results of diagnostic models indicate that, per geopotential height increase in the profile, the average daily temperatures of selected stations in the Sabzevar 1.4, Torbat-Heydarieh 1.3 and Mashhad 1.3 degrees Celsius will increase.
Keywords
Forecasting
Average Daily Temperature
Correlation
atmospheric middle level
Khorasan Razavi Province
13. American Meteorological Society (AMS)., (2012). http://amsglossary, allenpress, com.
14. Andreas, H., Mait, S. & Jorg. M., (2013) Large-scale atmospheric circulation forms and their impact on air temperature in Europe and northern Asia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology., 3, 643-658.
15. Domonkos, p., Jan Kysely, K. P., Predrag, P. & Tanja, L., (2003). Variability of Extreme Temperature Events in South-Centeral Europe During the 20th century and its Relationship with Large-Scale Circulation, International Journal of Climatology., 65, 60-86.
16. Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., James, P., Hisdal, H. & Stahl, K., (2015). Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in Synoptic circulation, Hydrology Earth, Sys and Sciences. 19, 3093-3107.
17. Hewitson, B. C., (1992). Large – scale atmospheric controls on local precipitation in tropical mexico, geophysical research letters, 190, 1029-1423.
18. Klein, W. H., (1984). Winter precipitation as Related to 700 mb Circulation, Bull, American Meteorological Society, 29, 439-453.
19. Lorenzo, S. A., Paulo, P., Joan, A., Lopez-Bustins, C. & Lolis, J., (2012). Summer night-time temperature trends on the Iberian Peninsula and their connection with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, international journal of climatology, 32, 1326–1335.
20. Lund, I. A., (1963). Mapp – pattern Classification by statistical Methods, International Journal of Climatology., 2, 56-65.
21. Maheras, P., konstantia, T., anagnostopoulu, Ch., Vafidais, M., patriaks, L. & Flokas, H., (2004). On the Relationships between Circulation Type and Changes in Rainfall Variability in the Greece, International Journal of Climatology. 24, 1695-1712.
22. Miken, L. & Walsh, K., (1983). Climate Change Simulations of Tasmanian Precipitation Using Multiple Nesting, Journal of Researches in Geography. 99, 20889–20905.
23. Panda, A., Dileep K., Mishra, A., Kumar, K. G., Mandal, A. K., Thakur, R. C. and Srivastava, C., (2014). Spatiotemporal patterns in the mean and extreme temperature indices of India, 1971–2005, international journal of climatology, 34, 3585–3603.
24. Paulo Ceppi, S., Scherrer, C., Andreas, M. & Fischer, C. A., (2012). Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959–2008, international journal of climatology, 32, 203–213.
25. Philandrasa, C. M., Nastosb, P. T., Kapsomenakisa, I. N. and Repapis, C. C., (2015). Climatology of upper air temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean region, Atmospheric Research, 152, 29–42.
26. Rogers, J. C. & Van Loon, H., (1982). Spatial variability of sea level pressure and 500 mb hight anomalies over the southern hemisphere, Mon. Weather. Rev., 110, 1375-1392.
27. Santos, J. A., (2004). Climate variability in Europe and its connection to the tropospheric and stratospheric circulations: A case study for Portugal, PhD Thesis, Department of Physic, Technical university of Lisbon, 148.
28. Slonosky, V. C. J. & Davis, P. D., (2001). Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Temperature in Europe from the 18th Century to 1995, International Journal of Climatology. 21, 63-75.
29. Walsh, K. & McGregor, J., (1982). An assessment of simulations of climate variability over Australia with a limited area model, International Journal of Climatology., 17, 201-223.
30. Wallace, I. M. & Gutzler, D. S., (1981). Teleconnections in the Geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter, Mon. Weather. Rev., 109, 784-812.
31. Yarnal, B., (1993). Synoptic Climatology in Environmental Analysis, London, A primer, Belhaven press, 216.
32. Yuhui, Y, C., liweihong, W., Andsun, G., (2010), Impacts of Climatic Change on
River Runoff in Northemn Xinjiang of Chinover Last Fiftiy Years, Chin. Gogra, sci, 20(3): 193-201.