Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation Based on Synoptic Method in Ghomrood Basin

Authors
Faranak Bahrami
Abbas Ranjbar.s.a
Ebrahim Fattahi
Meteorological Institute
10.29252/jgs.18.50.61
Abstract
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), is the highest rainfall, which occurs at a given time in a basin. Hydrologist calculates the probable maximum flood for the design of overflow dams, by using the PMP, with two methods: statistical and synoptic. The purpose of this study is calculating PMP in the Ghomrood basin by using the synoptic method. For this purpose rain, meteorological data of the Iran’s Meteorological Organization were used. Also, the data on the 850 and 500 hPa levels were analyzed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). In the following, the required synoptic maps produced and were studied. Iso rain maps were drawn, and depth-area-duration curves were determined. Eventually, PMP was estimated at 24, 48 and 72 hours. So that 24 hours PMP, by calculating 50 and 100 years return period of dew point estimated 51/75 and 54 mm respectively. Also for 48 hours PMP 128/25 and 132/05 mm, and for 72 hours PMP 97/9 and 101/75 estimated.
Keywords
PMP
Ghomrod basin
storm
synoptic method
Iran
ASTER, G. (2009). Validation Team: ASTER Global DEM Validation–Summary Report. METI & NASA, 28.
Chow, V. T., D. R. Maidment and L. W. Mays (1987) applied hydrology. McGrew-Hill, bookmcompany.
Eckhardt, K., Breuer, L., & Frede, H. G. (2003). Parameter uncertainty and the significance of simulated land use change effects. Journal of Hydrology, 273(1), 164-176.
FERC Hydropower PMF Guide, 2001. Determination of the Probable Maximum Flood. Chapter VIII.
Hall, D. K., Riggs, G. A., & Salomonson, V. V. (1995). Development of methods for mapping global snow cover using moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data. Remote sensing of Environment, 54(2), 127-140.
Hershfield, D.M. 1961. Estimating the probable maximum precipitation. J.Hydraul. Div., ASCE 887(HY5), Pp: 99-116.- .Hershfield, D.M. 1965. Method for estimating the probable maximum precipitation. Journal of American Water Works Association, 57: 965-972.
Lahmeyer International (1992) Godar-E-Landar Hydroelecteric Power Project, Feasibility Study, volume 3, Hydrology.
Martz, H. F., Beckman, R. J., Campbell, K., Whiteman, D. E., & Booker, J. M. (1983). Comparison of methods for uncertainty analysis of nuclear-power-plant safety-system fault-tree models (No. NUREG/CR--3263). Los Alamos National Lab.
Mohab Ghodss General Partnership (1991) Karun III Development Project, Miscellaneous Study No. 05-600, Probable Maximum Flood.
Mohab Ghodss (1996) , Probable Maximum Studies, Karun IV Development Project.
Mohab Ghodss (1999) Karun IV Feasibility Study, Appendix 3.2, Hydrology.
Newton, D. W., 1983. Realistic assessment of maximum flood potentials. ASCE 109(6), pp. 905918.
Riggs, G., Hall, D. K., & Salomonson, V. V. (1996, May). Recent progress in development of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover algorithm and product. In Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 1996. IGARSS'96.'Remote Sensing for a Sustainable Future.', International (Vol. 1, pp. 139-141). IEEE.
United States National Weather Service (1977) "probable maximum precipitation estimates Colorado river and great basin drainages" Hydrometorological Report. NO.49, Washington D.C.
United States National Weather Service (1986) "Probable maximum and T.V.A precipitation estimates with area distribution for Tennessee River Drainage less than 3000 " Hydrometorological Report. No. 56, Silver Silver Springs, MD
U.S. Department of Commerce (1994) " Probable maximum precipitation Pacific northwest state. Hydrometorological Report. No. 57, Silver Silver Springs, MD
U.S. Department of Commerce (1996) " Probable maximum precipitation for California: calculation procedures, Hydrometorological Report. No. 59, Silver Springs, MD.
World Meteorological Organization (1969) "Manual for Depth-Area-Duration Analysis of Storm Precipitation" WMO. No. 237. Tp. 129, Geneva.
World meteorological Organization (1986) "Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation" Operational Hydrology Report No. 1, WMO-No 332, Geneva.
World meteorological Organization (2010) "Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation" Operational Hydrology Report No. 1, WMO-No 332, Geneva.