Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences
تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی
jgs
Literature & Humanities
http://jgs.khu.ac.ir
1
admin
2228-7736
2588-5138
10.61882/jgs
fa
jalali
1385
12
1
gregorian
2007
3
1
0
مقالات آماده انتشار(موقت)
online
1
fulltext
fa
تبیین سناریوهای فراروی ایران متأثر از دالان زنگزور
Explaining the future scenarios of Iran's affected by the Zangzor Corridor
جغرافیای سیاسی
Political geography
پژوهشي
Research
<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">منطقه قره</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">باغ و به </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">تبع آن دالان زنگزور به </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">علت قابلیت</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">های ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواکونومیکی برای ایران از اهمیت ویژه</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">ای برخوردار است. مقاله کاربردی حاضر به تبیین سناریوهای فراروی ایران ناشی از دالان زنگزور پرداخته</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">است. روش</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">شناسی حاکم بر پژوهش، توصیفی تحلیلی است.</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">داده</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">های مورد نیاز با روش کتابخانه</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">ای و میدانی گردآوری و با بهره</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">گیری از نرم</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">افزارهای </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:9.0pt">Micmac</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""> و </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:9.0pt">Scenario Wizard</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""> مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ به این است که محتملترین سناریوی فراروی ایران ناشی از دالان زنگزور چیست؟ نتایج پژوهش نشان داد شش متغیر </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">حضور اسرائیل در منطقه قره</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">باغ</span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">، </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">قرار گرفتن منطقه قره</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">باغ در مدار آمریکا و غرب</span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">، </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">صادرات گاز ایران خصوصاً به ترکیه</span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">، </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">تمامیت ارضی ایران (خصوصاً استان</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">های ترک</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">نشین)، نقش گذرگاهی ایران در حمل و نقل بین</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">المللی</span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""> و </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">موقعیت ژئوپلیتیکی ایران</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">به</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی تأثیرگذار دالان زنگزور بر ایران انتخاب شدند. در این راستا؛</span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""> وضعیتهای احتمالی مربوط به شش سناریو با سازگاری قوی، نشان داد: وضعیت</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">هایی که سناریوهای فراروی ایران ناشی از تاثیر دالان زنگزور را بحرانی بیان میکنند، بیشترین وضعیت</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">های احتمالی ممکن را در بر می</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"2 NAZANIN",serif"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">گیرند. بر این پایه سناریو فروپاشی ژئوپلیتیکی تدوین شد و نتیجه گرفته شد؛ </span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">آینده امنیت ایران در قفقاز وابسته به توانایی خود در ایجاد یک استراتژی مؤثر برای مدیریت چالش</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">ها و بهره</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">برداری از فرصت</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">ها است. تنها از طریق تقویت همکاری</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">های منطقه</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">ای و اتخاذ سیاست</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">های مدبرانه، ایران می</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Courier"></span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin"">تواند در راستای حفظ منافع ملی خود و تأمین امنیت پایدار در این منطقه گام بردارد. </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:"B Nazanin""></span></span></b></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Qarabagh region and consequently Zangzor Corridor is of special importance for Iran due to its geopolitical and geoeconomic capabilities. This practical article is devoted to the explanation of the future scenarios for Iran caused by the Zangzor Corridor. The methodology governing the research is descriptive and analytical. The required data has been collected by library and field methods and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software.</span></span> <span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">The results of the research showed six variables: Israel's presence in the Karabakh region, the location of the Karabakh region in the orbit of the US and the West, Iran's gas export, especially to Turkey, Iran's territorial integrity (especially the Turkic provinces), Iran's transit role in international transportation, and Iran's geopolitical position. They were chosen as the key influencing variables of Zangzor Corridor on Iran. In this regard; The possible situations related to six scenarios with strong compatibility showed: the situations that describe the scenarios facing Iran as critical due to the impact of the Zangzor Corridor, include the most possible possible situations. On this basis, the scenario of geopolitical collapse was formulated and it was concluded that the future of Iran's security in the Caucasus depends on its ability to create an effective strategy for managing challenges and exploiting opportunities. Only by strengthening regional cooperation and adopting prudent policies, Iran can take steps to protect its national interests and ensure stable security in this region</span></span>
سناریوسازی، دالان زنگزور، وضعیت بحرانی.
scenario building, Dalan Zangzor, Critical situation.
0
0
http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-703-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
hossein
Amraei
حسین
امرائی
hosseinamraei@gmail.com
100319475328460023397
100319475328460023397
No
kharazmi university
دانشگاه خوارزمی
Hossein
Rabiee
حسین
ربیعی
hosseinrabiei@hotmail.com
100319475328460023398
100319475328460023398
Yes
kharazmi university
دانشگاه خوارزمی
Esmaeil
Dehghan
اسماعیل
دهقان
esmaeildehghaniran@gmail.com
100319475328460023399
100319475328460023399
No
kharazmi university
دانشگاه خوارزمی
Zakeyeh
Aftabi
زکیه
افتابی
aftabi_z@yahoo.com
100319475328460023400
100319475328460023400
No
Kharazmi university
دانشگاه خوارزمی