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1- , ssoltani@ardakan.ac.ir
2- Ardakan University
3- University of Tehran
Abstract:   (1394 Views)
In this research, the effect of climate change on the amount of virtual water of some strategic crops was investigated in Kerman province for future periods. For this purpose, the climatic data of HadCM3 model was used under RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. In order to investigate the possibility of producing and simulating meteorological data in the future periods, was applied the LARS-WG microscale-representative model. For the basic period (1991-2011), was done calibration and validation of the model. Through the data of LARS-WG, the amount of precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperature of the selected stations were predicted for the periods of 2011-2070 and compared with the base period. Virtual water amount was calculated for selected crops including alfalfa, barley and wheat. The results of the current research indicate that the phenomenon of climate change significantly affects the evapotranspiration and the performance of the studied crops, and hence it will affect the agricultural water productivity in the future. While the average temperature of the growing season will increase in the future under the influence of climate change, the maximum temperature parameter will be affected by this phenomenon more than the minimum temperature, and parallel to this, the water requirement and plant evaporation-transpiration will increase in this period. Also, the surveys show a decrease in precipitation in the hot seasons and an increase in the cold seasons in all study stations. The amount of virtual water changes obtained for all studied plants is increasing, and this increase for barley and wheat crops shows a greater increase on average in the future period. The biggest increase in the virtual water compared to the base period in Kerman station is related to barley and alfalfa products by at least 30%.
Type of Study: Research | Subject: climatology
Received: 2022/08/17 | Accepted: 2022/11/22

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