دوره 25، شماره 78 - ( 7-1404 )                   جلد 25 شماره 78 صفحات 0دوره0فصل__Se | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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karampour M, khamoshian sahneh Y, ebrahimi Z, heidari H. (2025). Correlation between NAO index and the occurrence of ARs in Iran. jgs. 25(78), doi:10.61186/jgs.25.78.5
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4140-fa.html
کرمپور مصطفی، خاموشیان صحنه یگانه، ابراهیمی زهره، حیدری حامد. بررسی همبستگی شاخص NAO با رخداد ARs ایران تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی 1404; 25 (78) 10.61186/jgs.25.78.5

URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4140-fa.html

بررسی همبستگی شاخص NAO با رخداد ARs ایران
مصطفی کرمپور* 1، یگانه خاموشیان صحنه2 ، زهره ابراهیمی3 ، حامد حیدری2
1- دانشگاه لرستان، دانشگاه لرستان ، mostafa_karampoor@yahoo.com
2- دانشگاه لرستان، دانشگاه لرستان
3- دانشگاه گلستانف گرگان ، ایران، دانشگاه گلستان
چکیده:   (3778 مشاهده)
بارش‌های سنگین و فراگیر که گاها با بالا بردن دبی جریانات سطحی منجر به  آب‌گرفتگی و حتی سیلاب در نواحی کشاورزی و مسکونی شهری و روستایی به‌ویژه در حاشیه رودخانه‌ها می‌شوند، لذا با آگاهی از سازوکار نقل‌وانتقال و شار بخار آب در اتمسفر ایران، و آشکارسازی ارتباط بین بارش‌های سنگین و وجود رودخانه جوی در این مناطق، ارائه نمود در این پژوهش برای کشور ایران و اطراف به بررسی رودخانه‌های اتمسفری ازنظر منبع شکل‌گیری و ارتباط و همبستگی آن‌ها با شاخص NAO پرداخته شد. در این راستا از  داده‌هایVwind, Function wind, NAO, ,wind Shum,Meridonal wind  طی سالهای 1994 تا 2019 استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد که در طول دوره‌ی مطالعه رودخانه‌های اتمسفری  ازنظر طول و عرض جغرافیایی جابجایی داشته و به عرضه‌ای پایین‌تر به سمت نیمه‌ی جنوبی ایران کشیده شده‌اند. بین شاخص NAO و جریانات نصف‌النهاری در سطوح بالاتر از 600 هکتوپاسکال همبستگی بالایی داشت همچنین سیگمای 0.2101  نشان داد که همبستگی بالایی با NAO در منطقه‌ی رخداد رودخانه‌های اتمسفری وارد به جو ایران وجود دارد، مراکز پرفشار در جهت‌دهی رودخانه‌های اتمسفری نقش مهمی دارند رودخانه‌های اتمسفری نمی‌توانند از مراکز فشار عبور کنند و معمولاً در مرز بیرونی این مراکز در نیمکره‌ی شمالی انحنای نصف­النهاری پیدا می‌کنند و سبب جهت‌دهی جنوبغربی-شمالشرقی آن‌ها می‌شوند. منبع رطوبتی اصلی رودخانه‌های اتمسفری وارد به ایران و کشورهای اطراف، اقیانوس اطلس می‌باشد که از سمت پهنه‌های آبی مانند دریای سرخ،دریای عمان ، اقیانوس هند و خلیج‌فارس تقویت می‌شود.
 
واژه‌های کلیدی: ARs، stream function، jet stream، همبستگی، سیگما
     
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: اب و هواشناسی
فهرست منابع
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2. Baggett, C., Sukyoung Lee, S., and Feldstein, S., (2016), An Investigation of the Presence of Atmospheric Rivers over the North Pacific during Planetary-Scale Wave Life Cycles and Their Role in Arctic Warming, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,73(11):4329-4347. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0033.1 [DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0033.1.]
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4. Debbage, N., Miller, P., Poore, S., Morano, K., Mote, T., and Sheppard, JM., (2017), A climatology of atmospheric river interactions with the southeastern United States coastline, Climatol,37:4077-4091. [DOI:10.1002/joc.5000]
5. Dettinger, M., (2013), Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast, Hydrometeor, 14, 1721-1732. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1 [DOI:10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1.]
6. Gimeno, L., Dominguez, F., Nieto, R., Trigo, R. M., Drumond, A., Reason, C., and Marengo, J., (2016), Major Mechanisms of Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Their Role in Extreme Precipitation Events, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour, 41, 117-141. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085558 [DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085558.]
7. Kerr, R.A., (2006), Rivers in the sky are flooding the world with tropical waters,Science, 313(5786), 435. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.313.5786.435 [DOI:10.1126/science.313.5786.435.] [PMID]
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9. Lavers, D.A., Allan, R., Villarini, G., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Brayshaw D., and Wade A., (2013), Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain, Environmental Research Letters, 8:1-8. [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010]
10. Lagrange, J.-L.,( 1868), Mémoire sur la théorie du mouvement des fluides (in: Nouveaux Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles-Lettres de Berlin, année 1781. Oevres de Lagrange, Tome IV, pp. 695-748.
11. National Research Council., ( 1991), Opportunities in Hydrologic Sciences, National Academy Press. 348 p.
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13. Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M.,, and Wick, G.A., (2008) ., Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of ARS affecting the west coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 9(1), 22-47. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1 [DOI:10.1175/2007JHM855.1.]
14. Newell, R.E., Newell, N.E., Zhu, Y., and Scott, C., (1992), Tropospheric rivers? a pilot study, Geophysical Research Letters, 19(24), 2401-2404. https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02916 [DOI:10.1029/92GL02916.]
15. Ralph, F.M., Coleman, T., Neiman, P.J., Zamora R.J., and Dettinger M.D., (2013), Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmosphericriver landfalls on soilmoisture and runoff in coastal northern California, Hydrometeorology, 14: 443-459 . [DOI:10.1175/JHM-D-12-076.1]
16. Ralph, F. M., Dettinger, M. D., Cairns, M. M., Galarneau, T. J., and Eylander, J., (2018), Defining atmospheric river: How the Glossary of Meteorology helped resolve a debate, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 99, 837-839, [DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1]
17. Ralph, F. M., Rutz, J. J., Cordeira, J. M., Dettinger, M., Anderson, M. D., Reynolds, M., Schick, and C. Smallcomb, L. J., (2019), A Scale to Characterize the Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers, Bull. Amer. Meteor, Soc, 100, 269-289, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1 [DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1.]
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19. Ramos, AM., Trigo, RM., Tomé, R., and Liberato MLR., (2018), Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in Extreme Precipitation on the European Macaronesian Islands, Atmosphere, 9(8):325. [DOI:10.3390/atmos9080325]
20. Rutz, J J., Steenburgh, W J., Ralph, F M., (2014), Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States, Monthly Weather Review, 142(2):905-921.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1. [DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1]
21. Ryoo, J M., Duane, E., Waliser, D E., Sun Wong, S., Eric, J., Fetzer, E J., and Fung, I., (2015), Classification of atmospheric river events on the U.S. West Coast using a trajectory model, JGR Atmospheres, 120(8): 3007-3028. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022023 [DOI:10.1002/2014JD022023.]
22. Salimi, S., Salighe, M., (2016), The effects of atmospheric rivers on Iran climate, Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 48(2), 247-264. Doi: 10.22059/JPHGR.2016.59366.
23. Smith, B L., Yuter, S E., (2010), Water Vapor Fluxes and Orographic Precipitation over Northern California Associated with a Landfalling Atmospheric River, Monthly Weather Review, 138(1): 74-100. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2939.1 [DOI:10.1175/2009MWR2939.1.]
24. Stohl, A., Forster, C., and Sodermann, H., (2008), Remote sources of water vapor forming precipitation on the Norwegian west coast at 60°N-a tale of hurricanes and an atmospheric river, Geophysical Research, 113, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009006 [DOI:10.1029/2007JD009006.]
25. Stokes, G.G., (1842), On the steady motion of incompressible fluids, Transactions of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 7: 439-453, Bibcode:1848TCaPS...7..439S Stokes, G.G., (1880), Mathematical and Physical Papers, Volume I, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-16
26. White, A.B., Gottas, D.J., Henkel, A.F., Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M., and Gutman, S.I., (2010), Developing a performance measure for snow-level forecasts. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11, 739-753. [DOI:10.1175/2009JHM1181.1]
27. Zhu, Y., and Newell, R.E., (1994), ARS and bombs, Geophysical Research Letters, 21(18), 1999-2002. https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL01710 [DOI:10.1029/94GL01710.]
28. Zhu, Y., and Newell, R.E., (1998), A proposed algorithm for moisture fluxes from atmospheric rivers, Monthly Weather Review, 126(3), 725-735. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2 [DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)1262.0.CO;2]
29. Akbary, M., Salimi, S., Hosseini, SA., and Hosseini M., (2019), Spatio-temporal changes of atmospheric rivers in the Middle East and North Africa region, Int J Climatol,1-11. https://doi. org/10.1002/joc.6052. [DOI:10.1002/joc.6052]
30. Baggett, C., Sukyoung Lee, S., and Feldstein, S., (2016), An Investigation of the Presence of Atmospheric Rivers over the North Pacific during Planetary-Scale Wave Life Cycles and Their Role in Arctic Warming, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,73(11):4329-4347. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0033.1 [DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0033.1.]
31. Champion, A.J., Allan, R.P., and Lavers D.A., (2015), Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall, Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120: 6731-6741 . [DOI:10.1002/2014JD022863]
32. Debbage, N., Miller, P., Poore, S., Morano, K., Mote, T., and Sheppard, JM., (2017), A climatology of atmospheric river interactions with the southeastern United States coastline, Climatol,37:4077-4091. [DOI:10.1002/joc.5000]
33. Dettinger, M., (2013), Atmospheric Rivers as Drought Busters on the U.S. West Coast, Hydrometeor, 14, 1721-1732. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1 [DOI:10.1175/JHM-D-13-02.1.]
34. Gimeno, L., Dominguez, F., Nieto, R., Trigo, R. M., Drumond, A., Reason, C., and Marengo, J., (2016), Major Mechanisms of Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Their Role in Extreme Precipitation Events, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour, 41, 117-141. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085558 [DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085558.]
35. Kerr, R.A., (2006), Rivers in the sky are flooding the world with tropical waters,Science, 313(5786), 435. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.313.5786.435 [DOI:10.1126/science.313.5786.435.] [PMID]
36. Lavers, D.A., and Villarini G., (2015), The contribution of atmospheric rivers to precipitation in Europe and the United States. Hydrology, 522: 382- 390. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.010]
37. Lavers, D.A., Allan, R., Villarini, G., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Brayshaw D., and Wade A., (2013), Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain, Environmental Research Letters, 8:1-8. [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010]
38. Lagrange, J.-L.,( 1868), Mémoire sur la théorie du mouvement des fluides (in: Nouveaux Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles-Lettres de Berlin, année 1781. Oevres de Lagrange, Tome IV, pp. 695-748.
39. National Research Council., ( 1991), Opportunities in Hydrologic Sciences, National Academy Press. 348 p.
40. National Research Council., (1999), The GEWEX Global Water Vapor Project (GVaP), USA.
41. Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M.,, and Wick, G.A., (2008) ., Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of ARS affecting the west coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 9(1), 22-47. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1 [DOI:10.1175/2007JHM855.1.]
42. Newell, R.E., Newell, N.E., Zhu, Y., and Scott, C., (1992), Tropospheric rivers? a pilot study, Geophysical Research Letters, 19(24), 2401-2404. https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02916 [DOI:10.1029/92GL02916.]
43. Ralph, F.M., Coleman, T., Neiman, P.J., Zamora R.J., and Dettinger M.D., (2013), Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmosphericriver landfalls on soilmoisture and runoff in coastal northern California, Hydrometeorology, 14: 443-459 . [DOI:10.1175/JHM-D-12-076.1]
44. Ralph, F. M., Dettinger, M. D., Cairns, M. M., Galarneau, T. J., and Eylander, J., (2018), Defining atmospheric river: How the Glossary of Meteorology helped resolve a debate, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 99, 837-839, [DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1]
45. Ralph, F. M., Rutz, J. J., Cordeira, J. M., Dettinger, M., Anderson, M. D., Reynolds, M., Schick, and C. Smallcomb, L. J., (2019), A Scale to Characterize the Strength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers, Bull. Amer. Meteor, Soc, 100, 269-289, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1 [DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1.]
46. Ralph, F.M., Neiman, P.J., Wick, G.A., Gutman, S.I., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., and White, A.B., (2006), Flooding on California's Russian River: role of atmospheric rivers, Geophysical Research Letters, 33(13), L13801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026689 [DOI:10.1029/2006GL026689.]
47. Ramos, AM., Trigo, RM., Tomé, R., and Liberato MLR., (2018), Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in Extreme Precipitation on the European Macaronesian Islands, Atmosphere, 9(8):325. [DOI:10.3390/atmos9080325]
48. Rutz, J J., Steenburgh, W J., Ralph, F M., (2014), Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States, Monthly Weather Review, 142(2):905-921.DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1. [DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00168.1]
49. Ryoo, J M., Duane, E., Waliser, D E., Sun Wong, S., Eric, J., Fetzer, E J., and Fung, I., (2015), Classification of atmospheric river events on the U.S. West Coast using a trajectory model, JGR Atmospheres, 120(8): 3007-3028. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022023 [DOI:10.1002/2014JD022023.]
50. Salimi, S., Salighe, M., (2016), The effects of atmospheric rivers on Iran climate, Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 48(2), 247-264. Doi: 10.22059/JPHGR.2016.59366.
51. Smith, B L., Yuter, S E., (2010), Water Vapor Fluxes and Orographic Precipitation over Northern California Associated with a Landfalling Atmospheric River, Monthly Weather Review, 138(1): 74-100. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2939.1 [DOI:10.1175/2009MWR2939.1.]
52. Stohl, A., Forster, C., and Sodermann, H., (2008), Remote sources of water vapor forming precipitation on the Norwegian west coast at 60°N-a tale of hurricanes and an atmospheric river, Geophysical Research, 113, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009006 [DOI:10.1029/2007JD009006.]
53. Stokes, G.G., (1842), On the steady motion of incompressible fluids, Transactions of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 7: 439-453, Bibcode:1848TCaPS...7..439S Stokes, G.G., (1880), Mathematical and Physical Papers, Volume I, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-16
54. White, A.B., Gottas, D.J., Henkel, A.F., Neiman, P.J., Ralph, F.M., and Gutman, S.I., (2010), Developing a performance measure for snow-level forecasts. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11, 739-753. [DOI:10.1175/2009JHM1181.1]
55. Zhu, Y., and Newell, R.E., (1994), ARS and bombs, Geophysical Research Letters, 21(18), 1999-2002. https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL01710 [DOI:10.1029/94GL01710.]
56. Zhu, Y., and Newell, R.E., (1998), A proposed algorithm for moisture fluxes from atmospheric rivers, Monthly Weather Review, 126(3), 725-735. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2 [DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)1262.0.CO;2]
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