تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

شبیه سازی تغییرات دما در نیمه غربی ایران طی دوره (1960-2100) با استفاده از مدل های واکاوی شده و خروجی مدل های 5/8RCP

نویسندگان
حسین عساکره 1
پیرو لیونلو 2
سیدحسین میرموسوی 3
سحر صدرافشاری 4
1 استاد اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه زنجان
2 استاد گروه علوم و فنون آلی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه سالنتو ، ایتالیا
3 دانشیار اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه زنجان
4 دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه زنجان
10.52547/jgs.22.66.1
چکیده
هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی تغییرات روند دما در نیمه غربی ایران می باشد. بدین منظور داده های دمای ماهانه 15 ایستگاه همدید طی دوره آماری 1960-2010 و برای نیمه غربی ایران گردآوری و پس از بررسی توسط آزمون های پتیت، SNHT، بویشاند و وان- نیومن با داده های واکاوی شدهERA-Interim ، ERA-20C ،NCEP و CMIP5 (RCP5/8 برای دوره 1960-2100) مقایسه و شبیه سازی شدند. روند دمای هر یک از این ایستگاه‌ها توسط آزمون من کندال و تخمین گر سن با 95 درصد اطمینان محاسبه گردید. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده از تمامی مدل ها، روند مثبت معنی دار در بهار، تابستان و پاییز مشاهده و تنها در فصل زمستان روند مثبت معنی دار در نتایج مدل ERA-Interim دیده شد. مدل های CMIP5 برای دوره (2050-2100) مقادیری بین 2 تا 4 درجه سلسیوس در صد سال را برای فصول مختلف به همراه داشته که نسبت به نتایج دیگر مدل ها برای دوره 1979-2010 کم تر می باشد. مدل های CMIP5 و میانگین آن­ها افزایش دمای سالانه را در کل منطقه مورد مطالعه تایید کرده و مقدار 7 درجه سلسیوس در صد سال را برای نیمه دوم قرن 21 نشان می دهند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
روند
تغییرات دما
شبیه سازی اقلیمی
CMIP5
نیمه غربی ایران

عنوان مقاله English

Simulation of Temperature Changes in the western half of Iran during (1960-2100) by using reanalysis datasets and RCP8.5 Models

نویسندگان English

Hossin Asakereh 1
Piero Lionello 2
hossein mirmousavi 3
sahar sadrafshari 4
1 Full professor in climatology, Zanjan University
2 Full professor, Dipartimento Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche e Ambientali (DiSTeBA), University of Salento and CMCC Lecce, Italy
3 Associate Professor in climatology, Zanjan University
4 PhD student in climatology, Zanjan University
چکیده English

The purpose of this research is to identify changes in the temperature trend in the western half of Iran. For this purpose, monthly temperature data of 15 synoptic stations were collected during 1960-2010. Quality control was applied on these data by applying Pettit, SNHT, Buishand and Von Neumann’s tests. Later data Simulated and compared with reanalysis data such as ERA-Interim, ERA-20C, NCEP and CMIP5 models (RCP8.5 for the period 1960-2100). Trends were calculated by the Mean Kendall test and the Sen’s estimator (95 % confidence level). Based on the results obtained from all models, a significant positive trend was observed in spring, summer and autumn, and only in winter according to ERA-Interim. Based on CMIP5 results for the period 2050-2100 values between 2 and 4 ° C/100 achieved, which is lower than the results of other models for the period 1979-2010. Considering the CMIP5 models and their overall average in the study area, an increase in annual temperature (7 ° C /100) for the second half of the 21st century was confirmed.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Trend
reanalysis data
CMIP5
temperature
Western half of Iran
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