تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

مدل‌سازی اثرات بالقوه تغییر اقلیم بر توزیع مکانی بلوط (مطالعه موردی: استان‌های ایلام و لرستان)

نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه خوارزمی
2 گروه سنجش‌ازدور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی،دانشگاه خوارزمی،تهران،ایران
چکیده
بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر توزیع مکانی بلوط، به‌عنوان گونه اصلی جنگل­های زاگرس و ارزش اکولوژیکی و اقتصادی آن از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. هدف از انجام این تحقیق استفاده از مدل­های توزیع گونه­ها برای شبیه­سازی محدوده­های اقلیمی مناسب برای زیست بلوط در حال حاضر و تغییرات بالقوه آن در سال­های 2050 و 2070 است. برای این کار از پنج الگوریتم مدل­سازی رگرسیونی و یادگیری ماشین، چهار متغیر اقلیمی وابسته به دما و بارندگی و دو سناریوی انتشار گاز گلخانه‌ای خوش‌بینانه و بدبینانه استفاده شد. نتایج ارزیابی صحت مدل­ها با معیار AUC نشان‌دهنده عملکرد خوب الگوریتم­های استفاده‌شده است و دراین‌بین الگوریتم Random Forest بالاترین صحت (AUC = 0.95) را در میان الگوریتم­ها دارا بود. نتایج نشان داد که در هر دو دوره زمانی و تحت هر دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم، تغییراتی در توزیع مکانی بلوط رخ خواهد داد که شدیدترین آن کاهش 42.9 درصدی محدوده اقلیمی مناسب بلوط تا سال 2070 در سناریوی بدبینانه (RCP 8.5) است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the oak spatial distribution (Case study: Ilam and Lorestan provinces)

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Safaei 1
Hani Rezayan 2
Parviz Zeaiean Firouzabadi 1
Ali asghar Torahi 1
1 Kharazmi University
2 Kharazmi University
چکیده English

Examining the effects of climate change on the oak spatial distribution, as the main species of Zagros forests and its ecological and economic values is of significant importance. Here, we used species distribution models for simulating current climatic suitability of oak and its potential changes in 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, five regression-based and machine learning approaches, four climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation and two optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) greenhouse-gas scenarios were used. The results of measuring the accuracy of models by AUC indicated the good performance of all algorithms and Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.95) among other methods. The results showed that in both time periods and under both scenarios, changes will occur in oak spatial distribution and the most severe one would be a 42.9 percent loss in the oak climatic suitability in 2070 under pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5).

کلیدواژه‌ها English

species distribution modelling
climate‌‌ change
Oak
species range change
habitat suitability
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