تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

طیف بندی و بهینه سازی پراکنش تاب آوری شهری با استفاده از شبیه سازی عددی نمونه موردی شهر ایلام

نویسنده
عضو هیئت علمی گروه شهرسازی دانشگاه صنعتی جندی شاپور دزفول
چکیده
تاب­آوری در شرایط بحرانی ناشی از زلزله اهمیت دوچندانی دارد؛ به عبارتی تاب آوری شهری یکی از مهم‌ترین موضوعات برای رسیدن به پایداری است. به منزله راهی برای تقویت جوامع با استفاده از ظرفیت­های آن‌ها مطرح می­شود. بر اساس ضرورت موضوع در شهر زلزله خیر ایلام تحقیق حاضر از نظر ماهیت دارای رویکرد توصیفی – تحلیلی و از نظر روش نیز توسعه­ای - کاربردی می­باشد. و هدف کلی تحقیق برنامه­ریزی فضایی مدیریت بحران شهری از منظر تاب­آوری شهری ایلام می­باشد. از نظر آماره فضایی VIKOR و شبیه­سازی بوت­استرپ استفاده گردیده و جهت تکمیل تحقیق از نرم‌افزارهای Visio، Grafer، SPSS، MINITAB و GIS استفاده شده است. نتایج یافته­ها براساس شبیه سازی بوت استرپ و براساس 196 سلول مورد مطالعه که بین 14 ناحیه شهری توزیع گردیده است؛ حداقل سلول تاب­آوری در شهر ایلام حدود 07/0 درصد را نشان داده است. لذا پراکندگی و وضعیت موجود متغیرهای شهر ایلام نمی تواند در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد به تاب آوری شهری تائید نمایند. بر اساس مدل VIKOR ناحیه چهار-2 کمترین تاب­آوری و ناحیه دو-1 بیشترین تاب­آوری شهر ایلام را دارا می‌باشد. همچنین محاسبات مدل رگرسیون نشان داده است مدل به کار رفته، پیش­بینی کننده خوبی برای متغیر تاب­آوری شهری می­باشد. چراکه میزان معناداری در تحقیق حاضر کمتر از میزان 0.05 را نشان داده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Spectrum and distribution optimization the resilience urban using numerical simulation (A case study of Ilam)

نویسنده English

elias mavedat
Assistant Professor, Jundishapur University of Technology Dezful
چکیده English

An earthquake, though a natural phenomenon that can be very destructive, But urban planning and management can play an important role in the damage it poses. Today, risk analysis is one of the basic needs for planning in general and urban planning in particular. From the perspective of many researchers, urban regeneration is one of the most important issues for sustainability. It serves as a way to strengthen communities by using their capacities. From the issue of choice in the city of Ilam, Ilam is located in the Zagros zone. So that the Zagros area has the highest earthquake with magnitude 4 to 4/5 richter has. According to the necessity of this research, a combination of methods (descriptive, exploratory, surveying, and analytical). In terms of the nature of research, it has a developmental-applied approach in line with the overall objective of urban spatial management planning research from the perspective of resilience is a city of Ilam. Based on the VIKOR statistical statistic, Bootstrap and Bootstrap simulation have been used. Visio, Grafer, SPSS, MINITAB and GIS software have been used to complete the research. Results of the findings were based on Bootstrap simulation and based on the 196 cells studied, distributed among 14 urban districts; The minimum residual cell in the city of Ilam has been around 0.07 percent. Therefore, the dispersion and status of the Ilam city variables can not be confirmed at urban confidence level of 95%. Based on the VIKOR model of the 4th region, the least resiliency and the region of 2 is the highest Ilam city resilience. Also, the regression model calculations have shown that the applied model is a good predictor of the urban regression variable. Because the significance of the present study is less than 0.05.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Resiliency
modeling
Earthquake
Ilam
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