تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

مدل سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از مدل زنجیره ای مارکوف و مدل LCM

نویسنده
استادیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی لارستان
چکیده
نقشه های کاربری پوشش زمین از مهمترین منابع اطلاعاتی در مدیریت منابع طبیعی محسوب میشوند. هدف این تحقیق بازبینی ، مدل سازی و پیش بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی در دوره 30 ساله توسط مدل LCM در شهر شیراز می باشد. در این تحقیق، تصاویر سنجندههای TM لندست 4، 5 و OLI لندست 8 به ترتیب برای سال های1985 ، 2000 و 2015 و همچنین نقشه های توپوگرافی و پوشش منطقه استفاده گردید.سپس صحت سنجی و آشکار سازی تغییرات انجام شد با بکارگیری مدل پیش بینی تغییرات کاربری LCM مارکوف و رویکرد مدلساز تغییر کاربری انجام شده است .تصاویر هر سه مقطع زمانی به چهار طبقۀ کاربری بایر، باغ، اراضی شهری، و اراضی زراعی طبقه بندی شدند. بنابر نتایج، کشاورزی آبی پویاترین کاربری موجود در منطقه بوده که وسعت این اراضی طی 1985 تا 2015 روندی صعودی را در پی داشته است، به طوری که مقدار( 4337 هکتار ، 7/ 12 درصد) به این اراضی افزوده شده است. روند تغییرات کاربری بایر نیز طی 1985 تا 2015 روندی نزولی بوده که موجب کاهش 99 / 59160 هکتار از این طبقه شده است.نتایج آشکار سازی تغییرات در دوره 1985 با ضریب کاپا 88/0، در دوره 2000 باضریب کاپا 77/0 و در دوره ی 2015 با ضریب کاپا 92/0 نشان داد. نتایج حاصل از آشکارسازی تغییرات در سال 2030 به گونه ای است که در صورت ادامه روند موجود در منطقه 33 / 20 درصد به طبقه کاربری زراعی افزوده خواهد شد، به طوری که در سال 2030 کاربری کشاورزی آبی 95 / 60 درصد از مساحت منطقه را شامل می شود. در کاربری های بایر و باغ به ترتیب 12 / 21 و 21 / 0درصد از مساحت تشکیل دهنده هر کاربری کاسته شده است و به مساحت کاربری شهری افزوده شده است. نقشه پیش بینی حاصله از مدل زنجیره مارکوف برای ارائه دیدی کلی به منظور مدیریت بهتر منابع طبیعی بسیار حائز اهمیت است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling land use changes using Markov chain model and LCM model

نویسنده English

mohammad ebrahim afifi
Islamic Azad University of Lourestan
چکیده English

Land use maps are considered as the most important sources of information in natural resource management. The purpose of this research is to review, model, and predict landslide changes in the 30-year period by LCM model in Shiraz. In this research, TM Landsat 4, 5 and OLI Landsat 8 images were used for 1985, 2000 and 2015 respectively, as well as topographic maps and area coverage. Subsequent validation and detection of changes were made using the prediction model of variation The use of LCM markov and the model of user change approach. The images were classified into four classes of Bayer, garden, urban lands, and arable land for each of the three periods. According to the results, aquaculture is the most dynamic user in the area, which has led to an upward trend during 1985-2015, so that the amount (4337 ha, 12.7%) has been added to this area. The Bayer user change trend was also a downward trend during 1985 to 2015, reducing the 99.1995 hectares of this class. The results of the change in the 1985 changes with a kappa coefficient of 0.88, in the 2000 period with a CAAP of 0.77, and in the period 2015 with a Kappa coefficient of 0.92. The results of the change detection in 2030 are such that if the current trend continues in the region, 20.33% will be added to the crop category, so that in 2030, agricultural cropping will be 95.60% of the area of ​​the area Gets In the Bayer and Garden uses 21.22% and 0.21% of the total area of ​​each user has been reduced and has been added to the urban area. The prediction map derived from the Markov chain model is very important for providing a general view for better management of natural resources.



کلیدواژه‌ها English

User Changes
LCM Model
Markov Chain Model
Shiraz
Landsat images
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