Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Projection and prediction of the annual and seasonal future reference evapotranspiration time scales in the West of Iran under RCP emission scenarios

Authors
Shadieh Heydari Tasheh Kaboud
Younes Khoshkhoo
University of Kurdistan
10.29252/jgs.19.53.157
Abstract
The aim of this research is the study of the climate change impacts on the seasonal and annual reference evapotranspiration time scales in some selected stations located in the West of Iran. To this purpose, four stations including Sanandaj, Saghez, Khorramabad and Kermanshah synoptic stations with enough long-term data were selected and the climate change impact on the reference evapotranspiration of these stations under two RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in three future time periods including 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 in comparison with the 1970-1999 base period was studied. The FAO-Penman-Montieth method was applied to calculating reference evapotranspiration and the CanESM2 general circulation model and SDSM downscaling method were used to simulating future climate conditions under the climatic scenarios. The results showed that the mean reference evapotranspiration in the annual and autumn and winter time scales in comparison to the base period will significantly increase for all of the studied stations under all of the scenarios and periods at the 0.01 confidence level. For spring season, the only significant change of the future period mean reference evapotranspiration compared to the base period in the all of the studied area will be a significant increase at the 0.01 confidence level in the 2071-2100 period under the RCP8.5 scenario and for the summer season, this significant increasing rate will occur in the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. The overall results of this research showed that the highest increasing rate of the future periods in comparison with the base period for all of the seasonal and annual time periods and for all of the studied area will under RCP8.5 scenario and in the 2071-2100 time periods. by comparing the reference evapotranspiration change rates between the different seasonal and annual scales, the results showed that the increasing rate of the mean reference evapotranspiration at the West of Iran will be very remarkably in the autumn and winter seasons compared to the other time scales.
Keywords
reference evapotranspiration
Climate Change
general atmospheric circulation model
SDSM model
West of Iran
Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage, paper 56 FAO Rome, 300(9): D05109.
Bassu S, Brisson N, Durand JL, Boote K, Lizaso J, Jones J, Wand Basso B. (2014). How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?. Global Change Biology, 20(7): 2301-2320.
Deryng D, Conway D, Ramankutty N, Price J, Warren R. (2014). Global crop yield rresponse to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environmental, Research Letters, 9(3):034011.
Ebrahimpour M, Ghahreman N, Orang M. (2014). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Reference Evapotranspiration and Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using SIMETAW, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 140(2): 1-10.
Goyal RK. (2004). Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: A case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India), Agriculture Water Management, 69(12):1-11.
Hourdin F, Musat I, Bony S, Braconnot P, Codron F, Dufresne J.L, Krinner G. (2006). The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Climate Dynamics, 27(8):787-813.
Kharin V.V Zwiers F.W Zhang X, Wehner M. (2013). Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble, Climatic Change, 119(2):345-357.
Li Z.L, Tang Z.M, Wan Y, Bi C, Zhou B.H, Tang G.J, Zhang X.Y. (2009). A review of current methodologies for regional evapotranspiration estimation from remotely sensed data, Sensors, 9(5):3801–3853.
Liu H, Zhang R, Li Y. (2014). Sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) to climate change in Beijing China, Journal of Desalination and Water Treatment, 52(13-15):2799-2804.
Marengo JA, Chou SC, Torres RR, Giarolla A, Alves LM, Lyra A .(2014). Climate change in central and South America: Recent trends future projections and impacts on regional agriculture. Working Paper No 73
Tao X, Chena H, Xua C, Houa Y, Jiea M .(2015). Analysis and prediction of reference evapotranspiration with climate change in Xiangjiang River Basin China, Water Science and Engineering, 8(4): 273- 281.
Wang W, Xing W, Shao Q, Yu Z, Peng S, Yang T, Yong B, Taylor J, Singh V.P. (2013). Changes in reference evapotranspiration across the Tibetan Plateau: Observations and future projections based on statistical downscaling, J Geophys Res Atmospheres, 118(10):4049-4068.
Wentz FJ, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K, Mears C. (2007). How much more rain will global warming bring?, Science, 317:233–235.