تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحلیل نوسانات زمانی امواج گرمایی منطقه ی شمالغرب ایران و ارتباط آنها با گازهای گلخانه ای و ناهنجاری های دمایی کره ی زمین

نویسندگان
داریوش حاتمی زرنه 1
زهرا حجازی زاده 2
محمدحسین ناصرزاده 2
1 دانشگاه خوارزمی
2 دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
10.29252/jgs.19.52.35
چکیده
هدف از این تحقیق بررسی تغییرات رخ­داده در فراوانی و شدت امواج ­گرمایی و همچنین ارتباط آنها با ناهنجاری های دمایی اقیانوس­­هاو­خشکی­ها و نیز گازهای­ گلخانه­ای در منطقه­ی شمال­غرب ایران است. ابتدا داده­ های دمای بیشینه­ ی دومتری سطح­زمین در بازه­ی زمانی 1851 تا 2014 به مدت 164 سال از وب­سایت ناسا اخذ گشته سپس نقشه­ ی امواج­ گرمایی ترسیم و استخراج شد. سپس به تحلیل­وبررسی فراوانی­وقوع و شدت امواج­گرمایی و نیز تغییرات در روند نوسانات­سالانه، بین­دهه­ای، پنجاه­ساله­ای و بین­صده­ای آن­ها پرداخته شد. جهت نیل به اهداف پژوهش از روش­های همبستگی پیرسون و اسپیرمن، رگرسیون ­خطی و پل ی­نومیال و نیز آزمون ­ناپارمتری من-کندال استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده فراوانی وقوع امواج ­گرمایی در بازه­ ی ­زمانی مدنظر روندی افزایشی ومعنادار داشته و بیشترین فراوانی رخداد­امواج­ در دهه­ های­ اخیر بوده­ است. همچنین شدت امواج ­گرمایی با افزایش نسبتا معنی­دار همراه بوده و شدیدترین­ امواج­ گرما در دهه­ ی­ آخر قرن 20 و اوایل قرن 21 تا دوره­ ی حاضر بوقوع پیوسته است. نتایج مقادیرهمبستگی نیز حاکی­ ازآن بود که شدت و فراوانی ­رخداد امواج ­گرم با مقادیر ناهنجاری ­دمایی اقیانوس­ وخشکی همبستگی مثبت ­و معنی­دار دارند. در بررسی ارتباط فراوانی­ وقوع و شدت امواج­ گرم با داده­ های 4 گاز گلخانه ا­ی اصلی شامل: (CO2 , CH4, N2O , SF6 )، مشخص شد که جز یک مورد ارتباط معنادار گاز دی­ اکسیدکربن با رخداد شدیدترین امواج­ گرمایی در ماه ژوئن، هیچ ارتباط معنی­داری بین آنها مشاهده نشد. نتایج آزمون من -کندال بیانگر روند افزایشی و معنی­دار در شدت و فراوانی وقوع امواج­ گرمایی منطقه ­ی شمال­غرب ایران است.



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کلیدواژه‌ها
واژگان کلیدی: فراوانی وقوع وشدت امواج گرم
گازهای گلخانه ای
گرمایش جهانی
شمالغرب ایران

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of heat waves temporal fluctuation in North - West region of Iran and their relationship with greenhouse gases and global land-ocean temperature anomalies

چکیده English

The heat waves today are one of the most important climatic hazards in the world. According to many scientists, the Severe and frequent occurrence of heat waves in recent years has been due to the emission of greenhouse gases and consequent increased global warming. The purpose of this study is to investigate changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves As well as their relationship with Global land-ocean temperature anomalies and greenhouse gases in the north-west of Iran. At First, maximum temperature of two meters of the surface during the period from 1851 to 2014 for 164 years was obtained from NASA’s website, then the maps of heat waves was drawn and extracted. Then, we analyzed and evaluated the frequency and severity of the heat waves, as well as changes in the annual, decade, fifty years old fluctuations and their centenary were analyzed. To achieve the research objectives, Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, linear and polynomial regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test were used. The results showed that the frequency of occurrence of heat waves in the considered period interval is incremental and relevant, and the most frequency of occurrence was in decades. Also the intensity of the heat waves is associated with a relatively significant increase, and the most intense heat waves occurred in the decades of the late 20th and early 21st century until the present period. The results of the correlation coefficients indicated that the intensity and frequency of the heat wave incidence have a positive and significant correlation with the Global land-ocean temperature anomalies. The results of investigating the relationship between frequency and intensity of heat waves with 4 important greenhouse gases, including: (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6), showed that, except for the positive and significant correlation of carbon dioxide gas with the most severe heat waves in June, There was no meaningful relationship between them. The results of the Mann-Kendall test indicate an incremental and significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heat wave events in the North-West region of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Frequency and intensity of heat waves
greenhouse gases
Global warming
North-west of Iran
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