تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

واکاوی نقش الگوهای دورپیوند منطقه‌ای و جهانی در تغییرات مکانی و زمانی پوشش برف حوزه آبریز رودخانه مارون

مقالات آماده انتشار
نویسندگان
نظام تنی
کمال امیدوار
دانشگاه یزد
چکیده
الگوهای دورپیوند بر بسیاری از پارامتر های اقلیمی از جمله بارش، دما و به دنبال آن بر پوشش برف و نوسانات این عنصر حیاتی تاثیر گذار است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی اثر 29 الگوی دورپیوندی منطقه‌ای و فرا‌منطقه‌ای بر تغییرات مکانی و زمانی پوشش برف حوزه آبریز رودخانه مارون است. این حوزه به‌عنوان منبع حیاتی تأمین آب شرب، کشاورزی و زیست‌محیطی جنوب‌غرب ایران، طی دهه‌های اخیر با نوسانات شدید هیدرولوژیکی از جمله خشکسالی‌ها و سیلاب‌ها مواجه بوده است. ازاین‌رو شناخت عوامل اقلیمی مؤثر بر آن برای مدیریت منابع آب و پیش‌بینی نوسانات اقلیمی ضروری است. برای این منظور، داده‌های روزانه پوشش برف حاصل از سنجنده MODIS ماهواره TERRA طی دوره ۲۰۰۱ تا ۲۰۲۲ از سامانه گوگل ارث انجین استخراج شد. شاخص نرمال‌شده تفاضلی پوشش برف (NDSI) با آستانه 4/0 برای تفکیک نواحی برفی به‌کار رفت و داده‌ها در مقیاس‌های ماهانه و دوره سرد تجمیع شدند. از طرفی،داده های ۲۹ شاخص دورپیوندی از جمله ENSO، NAO، PDO، TSA، TNA، EPO، SCA، AAO و SOLAR از پایگاه NOAA دریافت و روابط آن‌ها با پوشش برف با استفاده از همبستگی پیرسون تحلیل گردید .نتایج نشان داد برخی از شاخص‌ها از جمله TSA ،EPO، TNA، ESPI، RMM2، WARMPOOL، PBO و OSI بیشترین همبستگی منفی را با پوشش برف داشتند. همچنین شاخص PDO، PNA، MEIVE2و الگوهای NINO در مناطق مختلف در فاز گرم خود به صورت همزمان و تأخیری با افزایش وسعت پوشش برف والگوی SCA در دوره بهار سبب تقویت پوشش برف شد. به‌طور کلی، تغییرات برف حوزه مارون تحت‌تأثیر ترکیب نوسانات اقیانوسی–جوی و تابش خورشیدی است؛ به‌ویژه در فصول سرد و گذار فصلی مشهود تر است. بنابراین تحلیل هم‌زمان شاخص‌های دورپیوندی و تابشی می‌تواند مبنایی برای پیش‌بینی تغییرات هیدرولوژیکی و مدیریت پایدار منابع آبی حوزه مورد نظر را فراهم آورد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
پوشش برف
الگوهای دورپیوند
حوزه آبریز
همبستگی
مارون

عنوان مقاله English

Assessment of Regional and Global Teleconnection Impacts on Snow Cover Variability across the Maroon River Basin

نویسندگان English

Nezam Tani
kAMAL Omidvar
Yazd-university
چکیده English

Teleconnection patterns play a crucial role in modulating large-scale atmospheric circulation and significantly influence regional climatic variables, including snow cover dynamics. This study aims to examine the impacts of 29 regional and extra-regional teleconnection indices on the spatial and temporal variability of snow cover in the Maroon River basin, a key water-supplying region in southwestern Iran that has experienced severe hydrological extremes in recent decades. Daily snow cover data derived from the MODIS sensor onboard the TERRA satellite for the period 2001–2022 were processed using the Google Earth Engine platform. Snow-covered areas were identified using the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) with a threshold of 0.4, and the data were aggregated at monthly and cold-season scales. Teleconnection indices—including ENSO-related indices, NAO, PDO, TSA, TNA, EPO, SCA, AAO, and SOLAR—were obtained from the NOAA database. The relationships between snow cover variability and teleconnection patterns were quantified using Pearson correlation analysis, considering both simultaneous and lagged effects.The results indicate that indices such as TSA, EPO, TNA, ESPI, PBO, and OSI exhibit strong negative correlations with snow cover, reflecting suppressed snow accumulation during their positive phases. In contrast, PDO, PNA, MEI.v2, and several Niño indices show significant positive correlations, particularly during the cold season, while the SCA pattern enhances snow cover during spring. Overall, snow cover variability in the Maroon Basin is governed by the combined influence of ocean–atmosphere oscillations and solar activity, with the strongest responses occurring in cold and transitional seasons.These findings highlight the value of integrating teleconnection-based climate signals into snowpack and hydrological forecasting, providing a practical framework for improving water resource management and climate risk assessment in mountainous regions.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

snow cover
Teleconnection patterns
Watershed
Correlation
Maroon
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تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 01 فروردین 1386