تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

واکاوی تغییرات دهه‌ای در زبانه‌‌های ایرانسوی پرفشار سیبری طی نیم سده اخیر

مقالات آماده انتشار
نویسندگان
غلامرضا براتی 1
عیسی دهقان 2
1 دانشیار آب‌وهواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
پرفشار سیبری تاثیرات متفاوتی بر آب‌وهوای ایران دارد. گرمایش آب‌وهوا بویژه در سده اخیر، گمان تغییر شرایط زبانه‌های ایرانسوی پرفشار سیبری را مطرح کرد. در این پژوهش برای آزمون فرضیه یاد شده، نقشه‌های روزانه فشار هوا در تراز دریای آزاد برای 50 سال (1972 تا 2021) طی ماهی که پرفشار سیبری در نقشه‌های ترکیبی ماهانه، نمود قوی‌‌تری داشت؛ از پایگاه واکاوی داده‌‌های جوی NCEP/ENCAR بارگیری شد. انتخاب این ماه بر پایه بالاترین شدت فشار مرکزی این پرفشار (سنجه شدت) و بیشترین گسترش مکانی آن (سنجه مکانی) نسبت به 6 ماه دیگر بود. تفکیک محور زبانه‌های ایرانسوی پرفشار سیبری در چهار رده «زبانه پیوسته و رسیده»، «پیوسته و نارسیده»، «ناپیوسته و رسیده» و «ناپیوسته و نارسیده» و طراحی الگوهای همدید آنها، کاهشی آشکار در فراوانی زبانه‌های «پیوسته و رسیده» نشان داد. منظور از پیوستگی، مستقیم بودن زبانه و منظور از زبانه رسیده، زبانه‌ای است که تا مرزهای ایران و یا داخل ایران امتداد یافته باشد. بکارگیری دو معیار «پیشروی یکپارچه هوای سرد و خشک از کانون پرفشار به سوی ایران» و «احراز رسیدن زبانه پرفشار به مرزهای ایران و ورود آنها»، نشان داد هوای سرد و خشک از سه شاهراه، آسیای میانه را به سوی ایران می‌پیماید: 1 . شاهراه انتقال هوای سرد و خشک از دامنه‌های غربی رشته‌کوه آلتای، سپس جلگه توران و سرانجام ایران مرکزی. 2 . شاهراه انتقال هوا از جلگه زونگار در غرب چین، سپس پیمایش راستای رشته کوه تیان‌شان، افغانستان و سرانجام شمال استان سیستان‌وبلوچستان. 3. شاهراه انتقال هوا از بوته‌زارهای قزاقستان، دالان قفقاز (غرب دریای مازندران) و ورود به آذربایجان و پیشروی روی محور رشته‌کوه زاگرس. ارزیابی تغییرات فراوانی زبانه‌ها در 5 دهه تفکیک شده، گویای خلوت شدن هر سه شاهراه طی نیم سده اخیر است. این کاهش در شاهراه سوم یعنی دالان قفقاز که از ابتدا نیز از فراوانی پایین‌تری برخوردار بود، آشکارتر است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
پرفشار سیبری
زبانه‌های ایرانسو
تغییرات دهه‌ای

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of decadal changes in the Iran-directed of Siberian high-pressure outbreaks over the last half century

نویسندگان English

Gholamreza Barati 1
Isaa Dehghan 2
1 Assosiate of Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran
2 MSc Studendt of Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The Siberian High-pressure (HP) has various effects on Iran’s climate. Climate warming, especially in the last century, has raised the possibility of changes in the Outbreaks of the Siberian High-pressure extending toward Iran (OSH). In this study, to test the mentioned hypothesis, daily sea level pressure maps for 50 years (1972 to 2021) during the month in which the SH appeared more strongly in the monthly composite maps were downloaded from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric data reanalysis database. The selection of this month was based on the highest central pressure intensity of the high (intensity index) and its greatest spatial extent (spatial index) compared to the other six months. The axes of the OSHs extending toward Iran were classified into four categories: “continuous and reaching,” “continuous and non-reaching,” “discontinuous and reaching,” and “discontinuous and non-reaching.” The design of their synoptic patterns showed a clear decrease in the frequency of “continuous and reaching” OSHs. Continuity refers to the directness of the OSH, and a reaching OSH is one that extends to the borders of Iran or penetrates into the country. Using two criteria— “the integrated advance of cold and dry air from the high-pressure center toward Iran” and “verification of the OSH entering or reaching Iran’s borders”—it was found that cold and dry air travels from Central Asia toward Iran through three main pathways: 1. The pathway of cold and dry air transfer from the western slopes of the Altai Mountains, then across the Turan Plain, and finally into central Iran. 2. The pathway of air transfer from the Dzungarian Plain in western China, then along the Tian Shan Mountains, through Afghanistan, and finally into the north of Sistan-va-Baloochestan Province. 3. The pathway of air transfer from the Kazakh steppes, through the Caucasus corridor (west of the Caspian Sea), reaching Azerbaijan, and extending along the Zagros Mountains. The frequency of OSHs has indicated a decline in five separated decades along all three pathways during the past half century. This decrease is more evident in the third pathway, namely the Caucasus corridor, which already had a lower frequency from the beginning.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Siberian high pressure
Iran-directed outbreaks
decade changes
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تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 01 فروردین 1386