Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Explaining the future scenarios of Iran's affected by the Zangzor Corridor

Articles in Press
Authors
hossein Amraei 1
Hossein Rabiee 1
Esmaeil Dehghan 1
Zakeyeh Aftabi 2
1 kharazmi university
2 Kharazmi university
Abstract
Qarabagh region and consequently Zangzor Corridor is of special importance for Iran due to its geopolitical and geoeconomic capabilities. This practical article is devoted to the explanation of the future scenarios for Iran caused by the Zangzor Corridor. The methodology governing the research is descriptive and analytical. The required data has been collected by library and field methods and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the research showed six variables: Israel's presence in the Karabakh region, the location of the Karabakh region in the orbit of the US and the West, Iran's gas export, especially to Turkey, Iran's territorial integrity (especially the Turkic provinces), Iran's transit role in international transportation, and Iran's geopolitical position. They were chosen as the key influencing variables of Zangzor Corridor on Iran. In this regard; The possible situations related to six scenarios with strong compatibility showed: the situations that describe the scenarios facing Iran as critical due to the impact of the Zangzor Corridor, include the most possible possible situations. On this basis, the scenario of geopolitical collapse was formulated and it was concluded that the future of Iran's security in the Caucasus depends on its ability to create an effective strategy for managing challenges and exploiting opportunities. Only by strengthening regional cooperation and adopting prudent policies, Iran can take steps to protect its national interests and ensure stable security in this region
Keywords
scenario building
Dalan Zangzor
Critical situation
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Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 21 March 2007