تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

واکاوی چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی حوضه های رودخانه ای استان لرستان از منظر آینده پژوهی

مقالات آماده انتشار
نویسندگان
مراد کاویانی راد 1
آسیه سپهوند 2
1 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
انتقال آب استان لرستان به حوضه آبریز مرکزی، مدیریت ناکارای منابع آبی، افت سطح آبخوان­ها و کاهش سطح آب روخانه­ها به تهدید امنیت آب و بروز چالش­های هیدروپلیتیک در حوضه­های رودخانه­ای استان انجامیده است. تهدیدها و چالش­هایی که شناسایی آنها می­تواند از وقوع مشکلات و بحران­های آینده جلوگیری کند. پژوهش حاضر که از نوع کاربردی و از نظر روش آمیخته (کمی و کیفی) است با هدف واکاوی چالش­های هیدروپلیتیکی حوضه­های رودخانه­ای استان لرستان با استفاده از رویکرد آینده پژوهی انجام شده است. جامعه آماری کارشناسان/خبرگان مسائل آب، قتصادی، سیاسی و پژوهشگران جغرافیایی و علوم اجتماعی هستند. با استفاده از روش نمونه­گیری غیراحتمالی، به صوت هدفمند و با اشباع نظری 30 کارشناس انتخاب شد. برای گردآوری داده­ها از پرسش­نامه تاثیرات متقابل آینده­پژوهی و برای تحلیل داده­ها از مدل ساختاری و نرم­افزار میک­مک (MICMAC) استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد مهاجرت اجباری جوانان به مناطق صنعتی و مرکزی (23+)، ایجاد درگیری در شبکه­های مجازی بر سر منابع آب و انتقال آن (23+)، کاهش میزان تولید محصولات به دلیل کم آبی (15+)، تشدید تقابل میان افراد و گروه­های بهره‎بردار آب (کشاورزان، دولت و صنعت) (13+)، وقوع درگیری و نزاع محلی بر سر منابع آب (13+)، تهدید امنیت سیاسی (13+)، تهدید تعادل از محیط زیست (11+) و افت کمی و کیفی منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی (6+) مهم­ترین چالش­های هیدروپلیتیکی حوضه­های رودخانه­ای استان لرستان به شمار می­روند. در راستای پژوهش پیشنهادهایی برای پژوهش حاضر و تحقیقات آینده داده شد. نوآوری این پژوهش بر خلاف مطالعات گذشته، شناسایی چالش­های هیدروپلیتیکی از منظر حوضه­های رودخانه­ای و رویکرد آینده پژوهی است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی
حوضه های رودخانه ای
استان لرستان
آینده پژوهی

عنوان مقاله English

Analyzing the hydropolitical challenges of the river basins of Lorestan province using the future research approach

نویسندگان English

Morad Kavianirad 1
Asiyeh Sephvand 2
1 Corresponding author, Associate Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Doctoral student of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The water transfer of Lorestan province to desert areas, mismanagement of water resources, lowering of underground water level and reduction of surface water have created many hydropolitical challenges in this province and Lorestan is facing hydropolitical challenges in its basins. He has built a river in front of him. Identifying these challenges now and in the future can prevent future problems and crises. In the current research, the aim is to analyze the hydropolitical challenges of the river basins of Lorestan province using the future research approach. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and mixed method (quantitative and qualitative). The statistical community was experts/experts in water, economic, political issues and geographic and social science researchers. Using the non-probability sampling method, 30 experts were selected by targeted sound and theoretical saturation. To collect the data, the questionnaire of mutual effects of future research was used. Structural model and MICMAC software were used to analyze the data. The results of the research showed the forced migration of young people to industrial and desert areas (+23), the creation of conflicts in virtual networks regarding water resources and its transfer (+23), the decrease in the production of products due to water scarcity (+15), the increase Conflict between individuals and water exploiting groups (farmers, government, industry) (+13), occurrence of local and ethnic conflict and strife over water resources (+13), decrease in political security (+13), imbalance in the protection of The environment (+11) and the quantitative and qualitative decline of surface and underground water resources (+6) are the most important hydropolitical challenges of the river basins of Lorestan province. In line with the research, suggestions were given for the current research and future research. The enlightenment of this research, unlike previous studies, is the identification of hydropolitical challenges from the perspective of river basins and the future research approach.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Hydropolitical challenges
river basins
Lorestan province
future research
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تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 01 فروردین 1386