This study aimed to evaluate and model the minimum temperature changes in the northern half of Iran. First, the trend of minimum temperature changes during 1994 to 2023 was analyzed using the Sens and Mann-Kendall slope statistical tests. Then, to model the future minimum temperature, the MPI-ESM1-2-LR and MRI-ESM2-0 models were used under the scenarios (SSP2-4.5) and (SSP5-8.5). After evaluating the accuracy of the LARS-WG micro-controller with R2, MAPE, RMSE indices, the minimum temperature was predicted from 2041 to 2060. According to the results of trend analysis, the minimum temperature in most months, especially the warm months, at Ardabil station (representing the mountainous and cold western regions), Rasht station (representing the Caspian and humid climate), and Mashhad station (representing the cold and dry northeastern regions) had a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. At Qazvin station (representing the central semi-arid region), this upward trend was significant only in March and September at the 95% confidence level. Tehran and Rasht stations will experience an increase in minimum temperature up to 2 degrees Celsius in all months, and other stations will experience an increase of up to 3 degrees Celsius from early spring to the end of autumn, and a decrease in minimum temperature in winter. The increase in minimum temperature in the study area was predicted based on the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5) of the MRI-ESM2 model (1.7 to 3.5 degrees Celsius) and in the optimistic scenario SSP2-4.5 of the MPI-ESM1 model (1 to 1.6 degrees Celsius). This increase in temperature is one of the clear signs of climate change in the northern half of Iran and highlights the need for policymaking that is compatible with climate change.