عنوان مقاله English
نویسنده English
Abstract Due to its special geopolitical location at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, Turkey is considered a key player in the future developments of West Asia. However, in the existing literature, most studies are limited to describing Ankara's foreign policy and less to analyzing the future of geopolitical developments using systematic futures research approaches. This study, relying on the theoretical framework of geopolitical realism in interaction with the scenario-based futures research approach, seeks to fill this gap. The research method is mixed and descriptive-analytical, and data was collected through semi-structured interviews with 15 experts on Turkish issues and also through the analysis of documentary sources. The Delphi method was used to identify the main drivers and uncertainties, and then future scenarios were drawn using the perspective analysis model and cross-sectional analysis. The findings show that the geopolitical future of Greater Anatolia will be shaped by seven main scenarios, the most important of which are: intensification of hydropolitical competition between Turkey, Iraq, and Syria; increasing Turkey's role in the South Caucasus in light of convergence with the Republic of Azerbaijan; continued divergence in Ankara's relations with Tehran, especially in the areas of energy, Kurdish issues, and the corridor. The results show that Turkey's foreign policy in the face of these scenarios will be mainly based on three axes: developing the defense industry and increasing strategic depth, utilizing transit and energy capacities to become the region's geoeconomic crossroads, and continuing the neo-Ottoman policy with the aim of gaining regional hegemony. Therefore, the present study, while providing a systematic picture of possible futures, can help to more accurately understand the opportunities and challenges facing Turkey's neighboring countries in the Anatolian Plateau and serve as a basis for designing more realistic strategies in the field of foreign policy and regional security.
کلیدواژهها English
