fa چشم انداز تاثیر تغییر اقلیم آینده بر منابع آب و عملکرد چغندرقند در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه اب و هواشناسی climatology پژوهشي Research <br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">شواهد موجود نشان می دهد تغییر اقلیم ثبات</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تولید منطقه ای محصولات</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">کشاورزی را در چند دهه آینده نامطمئن خواهد ساخت. این تحقیق، با استفاده از مدل </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">SWAT</span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">به ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر هیدرولوژی و عملکرد چغندرقند به عنوان یکی از محصولات غالب در حوضه آبخیز دریاچه ارومیه پرداخته است</span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">. در این راستا نخست مدل </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">SWAT</span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بر اساس رواناب ماهانه 23</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ایستگاه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">آبسنجی و عملکرد سالانه گیاه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">به طور همزمان شبیه سازی شده </span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">سپس خروجی مدل</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">با</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">استفاده</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">از</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">الگوریتم </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">SUFI2</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، در نرم افزار</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">SWAT</span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">-</span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">CUP</span></b><b> </b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">برای</span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> دوره پایه 2014-1986 مورد واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی قرار </span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">گرفت. مقادیر نش-ساتکلیف</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و آماره اریب</span></span></b> <b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">برای رواناب</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">در</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">دوره</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">واسنجی با مقادیر به ترتیب 43/0 و 45% و در دوره اعتبارسنجی به ترتیب 53/0 و 16% و همچنین شاخص توافق 71/0 و آماره اریب</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بسیار پایین (6-% تا 10%) برای تولید محصول، کارایی مدل در شبیه سازی منابع</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">آب و عملکرد گیاه را تایید کرد. </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">گام بعدی، </span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">ریزمقیاس نمایی و تصحیح خطای داده های</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">دما و بارش دریافت شده از سه</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">مدل </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">GFDL</span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">، </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">HadGEM2</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> و </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">IPSL</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> تحت سناریوهای </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">انتشار</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">RCP4.5</span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">و </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">RCP8.5</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> با استفاده از نرم افزار </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">CCT</span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بود. در ادامه داده های ریزمقیاس شده به مدل </span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">SWAT</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> معرفی و </span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">در نهایت متغیرهای هیدرولوژی و عملکرد چغندرقند برای دوره 2050-2021 ارزیابی گردید. در حالی که اکثر سناریوها نشان دهنده تغییر</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بارش،</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">بین</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">12-%</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تا</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">35+% بودند، افزایش دما (</span></span></b><b><span bold="" dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">&deg;C</span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:"> 7/2)، باعث افزایش تبخیر و در نتیجه افزایش فشار بر منابع آبی و رواناب به ویژه در ماه های آغازین دوره رشد گیاه شده و در نهایت، کاهش عملکرد گیاه (45-%) </span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">دور از انتظار نیست</span></span></b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">. بدین معنی که عملکرد چغندرقند در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی بسیار آسیب پذیر بوده و تولید این محصول در منطقه مورد مطالعه طی دوره آتی، دست</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">خوش</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تغییر</span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">قرار خواهد گرفت.</span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">واژگان کلیدی: </span></span></b><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">تاثیر تغییر اقلیم، چغندرقند، حوضه دریاچه ارومیه، تحلیل حساسیت</span></span><span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span b="" nazanin="" style="font-family:">،</span></span><span dir="LTR" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">SWAT </span><span b="" lang="AR-SA" nazanin="" style="font-family:">.</span></span></span></span></span></span> <br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Evidence suggests that climate change will create uncertain regional agricultural production stability in the coming decades. This research investigated the impact of climate change on hydrology and sugar beet yield as one of the main crops in the Urmia lake basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To address this, a baseline SWAT model was setup for 1986-2014. Afterward, the output was calibrated (1989-2004) and validated (2005-2014) in the SWAT-CUP software using the SUFI2 algorithm to simulate streamflow of 23 gauging stations and crop yield. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.43 and 0.53 for calibration and validation periods, sequentially. The Percent Bias was 45% and 16% for calibration and validation periods, respectively. As well as the agreement indices of 0.71 and the little Percent Bias (-6% to 10%) for crop production, verified the model&#39;s efficiency. The next step was downscaling and bias-correction of the precipitation and temperature data received from 3 climate models, namely GFDL, HadGEM2, and IPSL under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using CCT program. Then, the downscaled data were fed to SWAT, and Finally, hydrological fluxes and sugar beet yield were estimated for 2021-2050. Despite a dispersion of precipitation changes ranging from -12% to +35% in most scenarios, results highlight the pivotal role that the warmer temperature (+2.7&deg;C) increases evaporation, resulting in sharpened pressure on water resources and runoff, especially, at the beginning of crop growth season. Finally, the negative impacts on crop productivity (-45%) is not unexpected. This means that sugar beet may suffer from climate change impacts, and the production of this plant will change over the next period in this region.</span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Keywords</span></b><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">: Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT.</span><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="color:#222a35"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> تاثیر تغییر اقلیم, چغندرقند, حوضه دریاچه ارومیه, تحلیل حساسیت,SWAT. Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT. 1 25 http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-3564-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Somayeh Naderi سمیه نادری std_nadery8802@khu.ac.ir 100319475328460020334 100319475328460020334 Yes Kharazmi University دانشگاه خوارزمی Bohloul Alijani بهلول علیجانی alijani@khu.ac.ir 100319475328460020335 100319475328460020335 No Kharazmi University دانشگاه خوارزمی Zahra Hedjazizadeh زهرا حجازی زاده hedjazizadeh@yahoo.com 100319475328460020336 100319475328460020336 No Kharazmi University دانشگاه خوارزمی Hasan Heidari حسن حیدری ha.heidari@urmia.ac.ir 100319475328460020337 100319475328460020337 No Urmia University دانشگاه ارومیه Karim Abbaspour کریم عباسپور karim.abbaspour@eawag.ch 100319475328460020338 100319475328460020338 No Eawag (Dominant of ETH) پژوهشکده ایواگ