تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی

تحلیل و پیش‌بینی غلظت PM10 بر پایه پارامترهای هواشناسی با استفاده از شبکه عصبی پرسپترون چندلایه (MLP) در شهر اهواز

نویسندگان
1 دانشجو دکتری آب‌وهواشناسی، گروه جغرافیا طبیعی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه جغرافیا طبیعی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، تهران، ایران
3 گروه هوش مصنوعی و شهرهای هوشمند دانشگاه ژائو ژنگ، چین و گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران .
چکیده
این پژوهش با هدف ارزیابی ارتباط میان پارامترهای هواشناسی و غلظت ذرات معلق PM10 و پیش‌بینی غلظت این آلاینده در شهر اهواز انجام شد. داده‌های روزانه پارامترهای هواشناسی شامل دما، سرعت باد، جهت باد، دید افقی، بارش و رطوبت نسبی و همچنین غلظت PM10 در بازه زمانی ۱۳۹۰ تا ۱۴۰۲، از سازمان هواشناسی کشور و اداره‌کل حفاظت محیط‌زیست خوزستان گردآوری شد. پس از پیش‌پردازش داده‌ها، به‌منظور بررسی نرمال بودن توزیع آن‌ها از آزمون کولموگروف اسمیرنوف استفاده شد. با توجه به غیرنرمال بودن داده‌ها، ضرایب همبستگی اسپیرمن و تاوی بی کندال برای بررسی ارتباط میان غلظت PM10 و پارامترهای هواشناسی به‌کار گرفته شدند. تحلیل‌های آماری و مدل‌سازی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS و زبان برنامه‌نویسی پایتون در محیط Spyder انجام شد. نتایج تحلیل همبستگی نشان داد که بین غلظت PM10 و پارامترهای هواشناسی ارتباط معناداری وجود دارد. به‌طور مشخص، همبستگی مثبت و معناداری بین PM10 و دما (۰٫۲۸۴ و ۰٫۱۸۷) و سرعت باد (۰٫۰۹۴ و ۰٫۰۶۱) و همبستگی منفی و معناداری بین PM10 و دید افقی (۰٫۴۰۸- و ۰٫۳۰۰-)، جهت باد (۰٫۰۴۸- و ۰٫۰۳۴-)، بارش (۰٫۱۵۹- و ۰٫۱۲۵-) و رطوبت نسبی (۰٫۲۵۹- و ۰٫۱۷۳-) مشاهده شد. در ادامه، به‌منظور پیش‌بینی غلظت PM10، از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی چندلایه پرسپترون (MLP) استفاده شد. ساختار شبکه شامل یک لایه ورودی با شش نورون متناظر با پارامترهای هواشناسی، سه لایه پنهان با ۱۶، ۳۲ و ۶۴ نورون و یک لایه خروجی بود. نتایج ارزیابی مدل نشان داد که شبکه عصبی MLP عملکرد قابل قبولی در پیش‌بینی غلظت PM10 در شهر اهواز دارد و خطای پیش‌بینی در مراحل آموزش، اعتبارسنجی و آزمون در سطح قابل قبولی قرار گرفت.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis and Prediction of PM10 Concentrations Based on Meteorological Parameters Using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network in Ahvaz, Iran

نویسندگان English

Atefeh Bosak 1
Zahra Hejazizadeh 2
Akbar Heydari Tashekaboud 3
1 phd student of Climatology, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khorazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing, China & Department of Geography & Urban Planning; Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,
چکیده English

This study aimed to investigate the relationships between meteorological parameters and particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and to predict PM10 concentrations in Ahvaz, Iran. Daily meteorological data, including temperature, wind speed, wind direction, horizontal visibility, precipitation, and relative humidity, along with PM10 concentration data, were collected for the period 2011–2023 from the Iran Meteorological Organization and the Khuzestan Department of Environmental Protection. Following data preprocessing, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test was applied to assess the normality of the data distributions. Given the non-normal distribution of the data, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and Kendall’s Tau-b correlation coefficient were employed to examine the relationships between PM10 concentrations and meteorological parameters. Statistical analyses and modeling were performed using SPSS and the Python programming language in the Spyder environment. The correlation analysis revealed significant associations between PM10 concentrations and the meteorological parameters. Specifically, PM10 exhibited significant positive correlations with temperature (0.284 and 0.187) and wind speed (0.094 and 0.061), while significant negative correlations were observed with horizontal visibility (-0.408 and -0.300), wind direction (-0.048 and -0.034), precipitation (-0.159 and -0.125), and relative humidity (-0.259 and -0.173). Subsequently, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network was employed to predict PM10 concentrations. The network architecture consisted of an input layer with six neurons corresponding to the meteorological parameters, three hidden layers with 16, 32, and 64 neurons, and an output layer. The model evaluation results indicated that the MLP neural network achieved acceptable performance in predicting PM10 concentrations in Ahvaz, with prediction errors remaining within an acceptable range across the training, validation, and testing stages.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Air pollution
Neural Network
Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)
PM10
Ahvaz
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