Army command and Staff University , m12mohammadim12@yahoo.com
Abstract: (322 Views)
Today, energy consumption plays a decisive role in the qualitative and quantitative development of human life. One of the energy sources is in line with the development and economic prosperity as well as acquisition of climate comfort in natural gas. This source of energy supply, especially in cold areas of the country as well as to provide thermal comfort is required to proper management. Good management of this fossil energy sources is through awareness and forecasts of demand rate of that path. For this reason, demand for natural gas in Zanjan city was studied and modeled as one of the cold cities in Iran. Two groups of data (weather elements and natural gas consumption) for a period of 9 years (2013-2021) on a daily scale have been used for performing this study. CurveExpert software and regression method (regression) were used in order to modeling the demand for natural gas in the city. Based on the most graceful pattern, temperature element was selected as the only independent variable in selective pattern. Polynomial regression with a correlation coefficient of 0.94 (coefficient of determination 89.03 percent) was selected to the final model. The percentage increase in natural gas consumption per one degree decrease in temperature, from 22 to 16 degrees, the highest percentage increase and from zero to -5 degrees, the lowest percentage increase per one degree decrease in temperature. The turning point and the beginning of problems related to the lack of natural gas in Zanjan city was determined to be below minus 7 degrees.
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