دوره 17، شماره 47 - ( 12-1396 )                   جلد 17 شماره 47 صفحات 171دوره189فصل__Se | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Sasanpour F. Future Studies Urban bubble in Tehran metropolitan. researches in Geographical Sciences. 2018; 17 (47) :171-189
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-fa.html
ساسان پور فرزانه، حاتمی افشار، بابایی شایان. آینده پژوهی حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران. نشریه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی. 1396; 17 (47) :171-189

URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-fa.html


1- دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران ، sasanpour@khu.ac.ir
2- دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
3- کارشناس ارشد مدیریت شهری دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
چکیده:   (528 مشاهده)
حباب شهرنشینی مفهوم جدیدی در عرصه برنامه ریزی شهری برای بررسی پایداری و ناپایداری در سطوح مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی، مدیریتی است. تاکنون تعریف مشترکی از حباب شهرنشینی ارایه نشده است که حاکی از عدم وجود مطالعات بسیار در این زمینه می باشد. این پژوهش به دنبال آن است تا وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران را با استفاده از رویکرد سناریو مورد بررسی قرار دهد. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت و روش تحقیق توصیفی تحلیلی از نوع اکتشافی است. اطلاعات مورد نیاز پژوهش از طریق مطالعات میدانی و اسنادی گردآوری شدند. در مطالعات میدانی از تکنیک دلفی در قالب گروه 30 نفره انجام شد. برای تحلیل داده ها از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل در نرم افزار MICMAC استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که 56 عامل بعنوان عوامل کلیدی در پنج بعد نهادی، مدیریتی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی موثر بر وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی شناسایی شدند. سپس با نظر خبرگان به 25 عامل پیشران تقلیل یافتند. وضعیت پراکندگی متغیرها حاکی از ناپایداری سیستم کلانشهری تهران می باشد. پنج دسته عوامل تاثیرگذار، دووجهی، تنظیمی، تاثیرپذیر و مستقل شناسایی شدند. امتیازات نهایی و رتبه بندی عوامل کلیدی انجام شد و در نهایت سه سناریو برای وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران ارایه گردید.
 
متن کامل [PDF 1061 kb]   (142 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي | موضوع مقاله: جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری
دریافت: ۱۳۹۶/۶/۲۲ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۶/۱۰/۲۴ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۶/۱۱/۲۴

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